On the other side of the continent, the Baltic Sea has enjoyed considerable attention from Western security planners over the past 20 years, resulting in a substantial improvement in regional security. The logistical and infrastructure legacy of the Russian Kavkaz-2020 military exercise, which ended in September, remains in place and available for use in subsequent weeks and months. 7 A claimed “humanitarian crisis” in Crimea due to water shortages could be a pretext for military action. Russia’s illegitimate claims to territorial waters around Crimea also threaten Ukrainian gas fields in the western Black Sea and Romania’s Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). 5 It continues to support and lead separatist forces in Donbas while preventing the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) from fulfilling its monitoring tasks. It seized three Ukrainian naval vessels in November 2018. It invaded Georgia in 2008 and continues to occupy 20% of Georgia’s sovereign territory (Abkhazia and South Ossetia). Since 1992, it has backed the separatist authorities in the Moldovan region of Transnistria. The Kremlin is prepared to use force in the BSR. 2 These Kremlin actions have also “weaponized” refugees, particularly from Syria, with a huge negative impact on European cohesion and budgets. Khalifa Haftar, the commander of the self-styled Libyan National Army, in Libya. The Kremlin’s growing military capabilities in the BSR have, in effect, surrounded Turkey, while enabling Russian naval operations in the Eastern Mediterranean and its support for Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and Gen. Russia believes it can operate with near impunity in the BSR, building and then projecting capabilities into the Caucasus, the Balkans, the Middle East, and beyond. The BSR is Russia’s key strategic maritime domain now and into the future. It fears growing Western and, in particular, Turkish influence in the BSR, which could turn the Black Sea into a “NATO lake.” 1 Moscow wants to ensure that no new east-west energy corridor can bypass Russia or weaken its grip on oil and gas exports. Russia’s concerns are aggressive, but also defensive. Why the Black Sea Region Matters to the Kremlin
This region must now be where NATO and the West compete: holding the line against anti-democratic forces, taking the initiative, establishing our influence, and protecting our strategic interests.Īdapted in 2020 from © Mapbox and © OpenStreetMap. We need greater focus, vision, and willpower. Challenging the Kremlin with military means only, in its perceived sphere of influence, reveals our lack of an effective long-term strategy, potentially leading to an escalation where Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime holds most of the cards. Russia uses its new generation (or “hybrid”) warfare to force NATO into an asymmetric contest, thus avoiding many of the Alliance’s greatest strengths. Conversely, failure to compete and to demonstrate and protect interests, in all domains, can lead to power vacuums and misunderstandings that can, in turn, lead to an escalation of tensions and actual conflict. Great-power competition prevented great-power conflict. and Western strategy in the region has been insufficient.
It matters to the West and to the Kremlin. The BSR is, in short, the literal and philosophical frontier between liberal democracy and autocracy. Instability in the Middle East to its south.Chinese financial aggression to its east.Russian military aggression to its north.The region is at the center of four great forces: The Black Sea region (BSR) is where Russia, Europe, the Middle East, the Balkans, and the Caucasus come together.
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DOWNLOAD PDF “What happens in the Black Sea doesn’t stay in the Black Sea,” Tihomir Stoytchev, Bulgaria’s ambassador to the United States
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